Risk of Climate Change for Hydroelectricity Production in China Is Small but Significant Reductions Cannot Be Precluded for More Than a Third of the Installed Capacity

To support the implementation of China's carbon neutrality target, this study assesses impact future climate change on hydroelectricity production (HP) in China. We developed a hydropower database for mainland China, which covers 92% installed capacity indicated by national statistics (352 GW 2018). An HP model was applied to simulate monthly 3,521 conventional plants at different levels global warming (1°, 1.5°, 2°, and 3°C above preindustrial) using an ensemble streamflow time series computed five hydrological models (GHMs), where each driven four (GCMs). With probability 80%, limiting 1.5°C will constrain changes range −1.4%–2.5% as compared near-present (1°C). In case world, more than doubles. is projected likely increase two provinces Sichuan Yunnan that encompass half capacity. However, with about 10%, may decrease world 15% provinces, 40% suffer from 5%. The uncertainty mainly due GCMs. found relative annual often differ magnitude direction depends seasonal patterns capacities determine maximum flow through turbines.